The Flow Rate Technical Group, a federal panel, now estimate that 20,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil a day are flowing into the Gulf of Mexico as a result of the Deepwater Horizon explosion.  This new range is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels per day.

A barrel of oil is 42 gallons, so the median 30,000 barrels would equate to nearly 1.3 million gallons a day.  By comparison, the entire Exxon Valdez disaster is estimated to have spilled 10.8 million gallons of oil into Prince William Sound in Alaska in 1989.

The higher estimates will affect not only appraisals of how much environmental damage the spill has done but also how much BP – along with numerous insurers — might ultimately compensate parties to clean up the spill as well as the thousands of related claims and damages.

In response to the new estimate, Credit Suisse now approximates the cleanup costs could end up at $15 billion to $23 billion, plus an additional $14 billion for related claims.  That said, many analysts point out that BP still retains some fiscal flexibility: it had net profits of $17 billion in 2009.

Andrew Gowers, a BP spokesman said the company did not have an estimate of what its impending liability costs would be, only that BP had already spent $1.43 billion, including claims payments, the costs of trying to plug and cap the leak, and payments of block grants to gulf states.

Dr. Ira Leifer, a researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a member of the Flow Rate Technical Group, said the new figures confirmed a suspicion he had developed, based on looking at satellite data, that the rate of flow for the well was increasing even before BP recently cut the riser pipe.

“The situation is growing worse,” Dr. Leifer said.

Stay tuned for regular updates.